When we started this nine-game road trip, I concluded that four wins would be a win. Facing three league leaders with some of the best home records in the Bigs, the Tigers just needed to survive until they could get back to the friendly confines. After six games, the Tigers have exactly two wins and if they can pull off two wins in Minnesota, will head back home in first place.
That being said, this is Minnesota and we have one exactly two series there in the last five years. It is hard not get a sinking feeling when I look at tonight's matchup of Bonderman vs. Liriano. I typically feel the camera guy in this video after a three-game set with the dreaded Twinkies.
When the Lions play the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field, I know they are going to lose. I hold out zero hope and subject myself to viewing only because I have nothing better to do on a Sunday. The Packers are normally better at nearly every position on the field, offensively and defensively. It's not a fair matchup, I understand it, and I don't harbor any illusions that the Lions have a chance. This should not translate to the Twins and Tigers. The Tigers can match the Twins for talent at just about every position on the field (except catcher). I would give the nod to the Tigers starting rotation and bullpen. Seriously, name more than three total Minnesota pitchers. You can't, because they are no-talent journeymen and kids fresh from AAA just like every year. I like our offense as much if not more than the Twins and the only thing they have on us is defense and base running, which shouldn't be enough to overcome areas 1, 2 and 3.
Just take a look at the comparison in lineups:
1. Denard Span vs. Austin Jackson
Span is a contact hitter that will make you throw him strikes. He's batted .294 and .311 in two seasons as lead off hitter and is incredibly hard to strike out (only 37 in 309 at bats in 2010). He has above average speed and has swiped 15 bases so far this year. Jackson has been dynamite as a rookie. In spring training, most fans were not sure if he would still be with the club in May. I personally thought we would see Damon as a fixture at leadoff in 2010 but AJ never gave Leyland a chance to bench him. He is leading Span in batting average (.305 vs .275), on-base percentage (.335 vs .346) and slugging percentage (.408 vs .369) but lags in strikeouts (73 vs 37), walks (18 vs 31) and stolen bases (12 vs 15). Both excel in the field and are capable of the highlight reel catch. Span may be more proven but AJ has been electric this year.
Advantage: TIGERS
2. Johnny Damon vs. Orlando Hudson
Hudson is a talented second baseman who fields his position well and does everything right in the two-hole. Damon is always dangerous in any spot in the lineup and can do just about anything except throw. Their stats have been comparable this season. Damon leads in slugging percentage (.391 vs .387), OBP (.365 vs .356) and walks (38 vs 23) and they are comparable in runs scored, average and doubles. Damon probably offers more versatility as he can play all three outfield positions and DH.
Advantage: TIGERS
3. Joe Mauer vs Magglio Ordonez
I was surprised to put their 2010 stats side by side. Mauer is everybody's All American and the new poster boy of MLB. He is a hitting machine and plays the game hard on every play. But, he is lagging Maggs in every meaningful statistic leading up to the All Start Break. Maggs leads in average (.319 vs .304), slugging (.504 vs .433), RBI (49 vs 33), OBP (.394 vs .381) and home runs (10 vs 3). In fact, you can't really find a stat that Mauer is leading Maggs so far in 2010.
Advantage: TIGERS
4. Justin Morneau vs Miguel Cabrera
Morneau is a ridiculous athlete and a much better fielder than Miggy. That being said, you don't pay max contracts to first basemen for their gloves. This blog has already made the case for Cabrera over Morneau for MVP in 2010, though I piss my pants every time we have to pitch to this guy.
Advantage: TIGERS
5. Michael Cuddyer vs Brennan Boesch
I can't stand Cuddyer which is all you need to know about his skills. The guy is good and he is clutch. This guy routinely breaks your back after you throw 25 pitches to Mauer and Morneau, contain them and then allow Cuddyer to take you deep. That being said, our Rookie of the Year is better. Just like with Mags and Mauer, Brennan leads Cuddyer in every single offensive category. He is ahead in average (.338 vs .259), RBI (43 vs 33), HR (12 vs 7), OBP (.389 vs .327), SLG (.621 vs .409). Actually, this is a slaughter and Boesch wins going away even with 15 less games played than Cuddyer.
Advantage: TIGERS
6. Jason Kubel vs. Brandon Inge
As I lament about every week, this is where things get dicey for the Tigers. Kubel is another clutch ball player that takes advantage of tired pitchers who just spent all of their energy to get the M&M boys out. Kubel scares the hell out of me and I was the least bit surprised when he hit the first grand slam off Mariano Rivera in ten years. Inge, not so much and the stats are fairly lopsided. Kubel wins in home runs (10 vs 6), RBI (41 vs 29) and SLG (.448 vs .429). The six-spot gets a lot of RBI opportunities and Kubel makes the most of his changes while Inge leads the league in runners stranded.
Advantage: TWINS
7. Delmon Young vs Carlos Guillen
Though Guillen prefers the six-spot, he's rarely healthy enough to be in the lineup consistently. Guillen is a true professional and sports our highest baseball IQ. His versatility is apparent in the field and at the plate as a switch-hitter. Carlos makes pitchers work at the plate and can deliver the dramatic, clutch hit. That being said, Young is having the better year. Young has played in 20 more games, leads in average, home runs, slugging, and has more than doubled Guillen's RBI totals.
Advantage: TWINS
8. J.J. Hardy vs Ramon Santiago
Ramon may be a utility player but he has been a regular in our lineup all year, mainly because Leyland can't afford to do without his bat. Ramon is disciplined at the plate and will make a pitcher throw him strikes. He is also more than satisfactory in the field at either 2B or SS. Hardy is a liability and that is putting it nicely. His .217 average and .265 OBP are worthy of the Pirates lineup. Ramon dominates in every offensive category.
Advantage: TIGERS
9. Nick Punto vs Gerald Laird
Punto is a scrappy ball player with a great mitt but I don't worry much about making some nachos while he is at the plate. Gerald Lard is a similar player in that he is golden defensively but awful with a piece of maple in his hands. Punto leads Lard in every offensive category unless you're comparing them in bathing suits on a beach.
Advantage: TWINS
After going through that exercise, I feel that the Tigers have facts on their side but can't say that I feel any better about winning a series in Minnesota. Here's hoping they aren't as worried about recent history as I am.
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