Sunday, April 25, 2010

Cabrera Trade Among All-Time Best



I want to take a break from Inge-bashing to talk about the greatest trade in the history of the organization. This is Cabrera's third season and it's safe to say he is working out OK. Here are Miggy's stats through the first eighteen games:

26/72 .361 AVG 22 RBI 9 2B 4 HR 11 BB

Great stats but the knock on Cabrera early last year was a weak HR to RBI ratio so let's take a look at how Miggy does with runners on base this year:

Runners On 15/40 .375 20 RBI (leads MLB)
RISP 12/23 .522
RISP w/ 2 outs 4/9 .444
*Cabrera has four plate appearances with bases loaded with 2 hits and one walk.

In short, if you have to throw strikes to Cabrera, he will hurt you. On three occasions this year, Cabrera has tied the score in the 9th inning while facing an opponent's closer. This is usually the one pitcher who is concerned with walking Miggy as they would rather Cabrera tie the score than bring the winning run to the plate. In these situations, they throw their best pitch for a strike and Cabrera's best is simply better. Cabrera is at his best in situations where stakes are highest and typically delivers as if a case of Krispy Kremes is on the line.

In 2009, Cabrera was a legitimate MVP candidate after batting .323 with 103 RBI and 34 home runs. This year is posed to be much better as Miggy is coming up with men on base at a much higher clip with AJack, Damon and Mags hitting over .300. Indeed, Miggy hit so many solo shots because Cgrand and Mags couldn't get on base and Placido had an off-year marred with injuries.

The big concern with this trade was whether the Tigers were trading away the future to get Cabrera. Miggy just turned 27 and has a minimum of eight productive seasons ahead of him. This compares with Cameron Maybin at 23 years old, not exactly a big difference. In three years after the trade, Maybin has a grand total of 21 RBI which is less than Cabrera's total through first 18 games of 2010. He is turning out to be a nice player but not he phenom that Cabrera was at his age (see WS ring and multiple All Start appearances prior to his arrival in Detroit).


Andrew Miller was also in this trade and the former first rounder was thought to be a future All Star. In two seasons, he is 9-15 with a 5.41 ERA in 34 starts. Miller is not on the active squad in 2010 compared with Dontrelle Willis who has been a disaster the past two years with an ERA over 9.00 but is finding a way to be productie in 2010 with three starts and a 4.24 ERA. Miller has dealt with multiple injuries in his tenure with Marlins and it is not outrageous to say that Dumbrowski saw it coming. Miller is 6'7", skinny and pitches with a violent, all-arm style that rarely translates to a long career. If Dontrelle can remain productive as 4th or 5th starter through the end of this year, the trade would make sense on the merits of pitchers alone.



Is Cabrera still immature? Absolutely. Does he eat too many gorditas at Taco Bell every night after the game? Probably. Did he get boozed up during our biggest series of the year last year? He may or may not have but I am pretty sure he hit a home run and double in his first two at-bats in play-in game with Twins, all with a wicked hangover and shiner from his old lady. I can deal with the intangibles that come with our husky cleanup hitter as long as he continues to rake at this pace.

Old timers may point to the Doyle Alexander trade which delivered the pennant in 1987 but the loss of Smoltz put us in a hole for two decades. They will point to Rocky Colavito and may have a point. Rocky won two MVP's with Tigers and his 1961 season may be the best ever by a Tiger (.290, 45 HR, 140 RBI). That being said, Cabrera has the talent to put those numbers up every year for a long time and this trade will turn out to be our most impactful.

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